Technology slowing down

[rxonmymind]

Hi all.
Looking out at the general landscape and reading various tech news I'm getting the feeling that we've hit the wall in terms of technological FORCE. Several points to consider
1. Battery life/power (M.I.T has a few breakthroughs on super capacitors)
2. Transistors size limitations 32nm and drop...
3. Heat
4. Moore's Law

Ok, so IBM has a 5ghz chip. Not applicable to phones. And companie are starting to battle "patent infringements rights" either real or imagined. Silicon Valley is starting to eat it's own so to speak as did Wall Street did with each other.

So where do we go from here? Were are the breakthrough & will you "upgrade" to a phone that has marginal improvements?

 

[budlight4me]

I read yesterday that # of transistors in a processor is so large now, they can't all run at once w/out creating too much heat

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[rxonmymind]

I read yesterday that # of transistors in a processor is so large now, they can't all run at once w/out creating too much heat

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I read something similar to that also and thus my question. Interesting developments. We seem to be hitting a choke point.

 

[rherron]

We put a man on the moon 15 or more years before people thought to put wheels on luggage.

Don't think all the good ideas and breakthroughs have already happened.

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[Zecpull]

We put a man on the moon 15 or more years before people thought to put wheels on luggage.

Don't think all the good ideas and breakthroughs have already happened.

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I so agree... The Silicon Chip may have met its limits. But...? Who says there will not be a Cubic Zirconium, or other chip, that will not have any problems with heat.? Or maybe they will find a way to use the Heat to power some other source?
The Smart phone is still in its infancy. And who says a Processor has to be faster than 5 ghz, I say throughput of information will be the key. We have seen 4 core Processors. .. whats the Limit.. I see Fiber optics inside moving information.. Have all the questions been answered..? We already have Technology ahead of stuff used on the Enterprise.. lol

 

[budlight4me]

We put a man on the moon 15 or more years before people thought to put wheels on luggage.

Don't think all the good ideas and breakthroughs have already happened.

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I thought that was set in Arizona

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[jstafford1]

I think its a generational thing really. The current generation might be running low on ideas, but give it some time and someone will rethink some of these "issues" and another breakthrough will occur. Breakthroughs don't have to be huge to be significant. Technology isn't slowing down on a whole. It ebbs and flows like everything else.

The focus has shifted from new tech to implimentation really. Everyone is trying to integrate all the latest things. Once that is worked out you will see more focus on the next big thing.

end of line...

 

[budlight4me]

End of line? It all goes back to the simple gate, and nand nor so on, that hasn't changed

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[Gunslinger]

You can't look at technological progress on a small scale. Look at 5 years though. Processors couldn't get any smaller or faster back then, for the same reasons they can't now. Then, someone figured out a solution to one of those problems, and they got faster. If you got the latest superphone delivered to your door from 5 years in the future, you'd sh*t yourself at the technology. Battery tech is the only thing I agree with you about. It just hasn't come that far, compared to other fields.

dancedroid

 

[smokiedabong]

Intel is building it's 14 nm chip factory , the phones are still using 45 nm chips so there's a lot of space for improvement . Also Intel just presented its new 3D transistor design which allows double the amount of transistors in the same space and it runs more efficiently , just this new design doubled the processing power for the existing architecture
I believe there is a lot yet to be improved to the existing silicon chips . Almost every year I hear similar stories , I remember reading a similar story over 10 years ago when AMD was beating Intel in the Ghz race and they put out the 1Ghz processor and everybody thought they reached the limit of the silicon chip .

 

[budlight4me]

You can't look at technological progress on a small scale. Look at 5 years though. Processors couldn't get any smaller or faster back then, for the same reasons they can't now. Then, someone figured out a solution to one of those problems, and they got faster. If you got the latest superphone delivered to your door from 5 years in the future, you'd sh*t yourself at the technology. Battery tech is the only thing I agree with you about. It just hasn't come that far, compared to other fields.

dancedroid

Why hasn't batt life gotten any better with the use of ecl at 3.3v n running almost microamps rather than ttl

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[rxonmymind]

Intel is building it's 14 nm chip factory , the phones are still using 45 nm chips so there's a lot of space for improvement . Also Intel just presented its new 3D transistor design which allows double the amount of transistors in the same space and it runs more efficiently , just this new design doubled the processing power for the existing architecture
I believe there is a lot yet to be improved to the existing silicon chips . Almost every year I hear similar stories , I remember reading a similar story over 10 years ago when AMD was beating Intel in the Ghz race and they put out the 1Ghz processor and everybody thought they reached the limit of the silicon chip .

I'm not talking about 5yrs or even ten But by doing the math by 2025 what happens when you can no longer shrink the transistor? Efficiency is good but that wont solve on of the fundamental problems of using wire to move electrons. Michio Kaku brought this up. In pure math one KNOWS the end and it's around five or so atoms across transistors! Sigh.

But look at your last point 1Ghz eleven LOOOOOONG years ago. That's ancient in tech terms and we are at 2.2-3Ghz dual core now? Phhht. They have been able to slow/stop light so maybe the future will be laser pulse transistors? Talk about heat management!

Anyhow battery life will have to VASTLY improve.

 

[jstafford1]

End of line?

Never seen the original Tron??

That's just my tapatalk sig.


end of line...

 

[rxonmymind]

Let me throw this out there as an example
How much better are the Droids coming out now even the Bionic to the original Droid? My guess is not much. Not on order of magnitudes. Incremental improvements & battery sucking power types yes. Tinker around the edges, copy others innovations. Nothing that makes me rush out & upgrade. I'll keep mine thank you.

 

[smokiedabong]

Intel is building it's 14 nm chip factory , the phones are still using 45 nm chips so there's a lot of space for improvement . Also Intel just presented its new 3D transistor design which allows double the amount of transistors in the same space and it runs more efficiently , just this new design doubled the processing power for the existing architecture
I believe there is a lot yet to be improved to the existing silicon chips . Almost every year I hear similar stories , I remember reading a similar story over 10 years ago when AMD was beating Intel in the Ghz race and they put out the 1Ghz processor and everybody thought they reached the limit of the silicon chip .

I'm not talking about 5yrs or even ten But by doing the math by 2025 what happens when you can no longer shrink the transistor? Efficiency is good but that wont solve on of the fundamental problems of using wire to move electrons. Michio Kaku brought this up. In pure math one KNOWS the end and it's around five or so atoms across transistors! Sigh.

But look at your last point 1Ghz eleven LOOOOOONG years ago. That's ancient in tech terms and we are at 2.2-3Ghz dual core now? Phhht. They have been able to slow/stop light so maybe the future will be laser pulse transistors? Talk about heat management!

Anyhow battery life will have to VASTLY improve.

The 1 Ghz processor from 10 years ago was capable of 3,000 million instructions per second, a new , more efficient 3 Ghz processor is capable of over 150,000 million instructions per second , even your phone processor is twice as fast . A lot can be achieved with efficiency and architecture