allowed to upgrade earlier, which phone should I get?

Prices are right around the same on craigslist. I want to make sure I make the right move. I don't want to buy a phone and regret it later. I want the one that will last me the longest, has good reception and is durable. Has to support jelly bean and be upgraded to jelly bean
 
does the nexus do the same as the s3? Also I've been reading about horrible reception on the nexus. Will it be as good as my thunderbolt?
 
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