Analyst Says Windows Phone Will Surpass iOS in 2016, Android Slips

[cereal killer]

Analyst IDC is at it again predicting the rise and fall of the major smartphone OS platforms. The IDC's table above shows how they think the smartphone market will evolve by 2016 and it is surprisingly showing Windows Phone, once again, topping market share. As you can see WP edges out iOS by a mere .2%, and Android drops a lot of marketshare but still keeps top honors. Senior Research Analyst, Ramon Llamas, at IDC's Mobile Phone Technology and Trends team said this about the forecast:

Underpinning the smartphone market is the constantly shifting OS landscape. Android will maintain leadership throughout our forecast, while others will gain more mobile operator partnerships (Apple) or currently find themselves in the midst of a major transition (BlackBerry and Windows Phone/Windows Mobile). What remains to be seen is how these different operating systems – as well as others – will define and shape the user experience beyond what we see today in order to attract new customers and encourage replacements.

We'd like to add that predicting these types of things is nothing more than guesswork, and there is nothing scientific about coming to these conclusions, but it makes for some good discussion among the fans of each OS. Is this table nothing more than somebody's fantasy, or does it hold some real truth? You decide.

Via: Windows Phone

 

[94lt1]

I don't care what they say... android is just starting to come into its own IMHO.

DROID RAZR MAXXIMIZED!!!! PREPARE TO BE VANQUISHED!!!

 

[tjk629]

I don't know.

I mean, I can see Windows Phone rise if MS does their stuff right with W8. Hopefully what I'm thinking is what they're thinking, and everything will happen.

Overall, I think how WP will surpass the iPhone is how Android did it. They have the ability to push out a lot more phones to different parts. The iPhone was exclusive for a long time, and started tinkling out to other high end carriers. Just now is it started getting on prepaid carriers, and becoming unlocked (officially). This is all stuff android's been doing for years, and what got it to where it is today. Plus, Apple has like, what 3 models available to people. Speaking for just vzw, around 61% of their smart phone line is Android. Plus, android adopts to newer technology faster than apple. The only "4G" device they have is the iPad, and I guess the HSPA+ AT&T 4S.

If Windows Phone can get more carriers on board, and push out more phones. I think they could.

 

[huskerkate]

Way, way, WAY too many variables for this prediction to have any real merit. I'm not saying it won't happen, but it just can't be predicted with any reasonable reliability. Can you imagine what this chart looked like before the OG, or the iPhone?? I'm sure they were predicting RIM to be ruling the world, with Palm being a distant second. They probably didn't give much credit to Andy early on, because the Eris wasn't much of a seller. But, the marketing of the OG changed the whole landscape of smartphones and OS's. And, I say "marketing" for a reason - while there's no debating the fact that the OG was/is a fantastic beast of a device, I think most would agree that it's success stems from the marketing that was behind it. And, those things just can't be predicted.

I personally don't see the Windows OS making that big of a splash, but who knows what those lab geeks are cooking up. ;-)

 

[dgstorm]

It's funny how these "analysts" think they have a crystal ball just looking at a spreadsheet full of numbers. No one knows how things might change in 6 months in tech, let alone that far out. Laughable.

 

[guidot]

Wait. The fact that BB is said to still exist past this year negates the entire study.

 

[huskerkate]

Wait. The fact that BB is said to still exist past this year negates the entire study.

lol!! ...so true. RIM - setting the speed record for circling the drain since 2009.

EDIT: CK, did they publish the standard deviation rates with this article? i'm guessing they're somewhere in the +/- 47% range...

 

[VirtualCLD]

I think this article shows exactly how accurate smartphone market share predictions have been over the past few years. (Spoiler: not very acurate)

 

[guidot]

I take some of this back as I know its market share, but .1% in 4 years is a little too positively spun. I realize some businessfolk will still be using them, but with this increase of Windows Phone (lol) something else has to go down in my opinion.

 

[94lt1]

Correct me if I'm wrong, but analysts are partially to blame for high oil prices and many other products... saying that a village fire in some middle east town will affect the flow from somewhere to wherever.... analysts don't know anything from what I've seen, and yet they have an affect on so much.... just my opinion.

DROID RAZR MAXXIMIZED!!!! PREPARE TO BE VANQUISHED!!!

 

[cush2push]

I find it very hard for windows to get any increase in the market im sure win8 is great in its own way but apps are what drive phone sales to 1/2 of all phone consumers the other half either dont care as long as its a phone or prefer a certain OS. Windows has a long way to go in that department especially if they are gonna charge for their development kit

Sent from my Galaxy Nexus using Xparent ICS Tapatalk 2

 

[cereal killer]

BB 10.0 may allow them to tread water for some time. I'm going to be the 1 dissenter here and say that IDC's prediction is going to be accurate (not necessarily with % of Market share numbers.) I think WP is going to blow up. Pair it with Nokia and you have a potent combination. Android's "fragmentation" is going to wear thin on devs if they don't get it under control and fast. I'd definitely consider a Windows Phone 8 phone, they are pretty darn nice. If Windows Market continues to grow and continues to get a lot of support, making the move will be an even easier decision.

 

[guidot]

BB 10.0 may allow them to tread water for some time. I'm going to be the 1 dissenter here and say that IDC's prediction is going to be accurate. I think WP is going to blow up. Pair it with Nokia and you have a potent combination. Android's "fragmentation" is going to wear thin on devs if they don't get it under control and fast. I'd definitely consider a Windows Phone 8 phone, they are pretty darn nice. If Windows Market continues to grow and continues to get a lot of support, making the move will be an even easier decision.

Wait, what forum is this?

 

[cereal killer]

Wait, what forum is this?

gotta keep it real up in here :big smile:

 

[kodiak799]

That's a lot of [misplaced] faith in Microsoft's ability to execute.

The opportunity Android seized on was people wanting an alternative to IOS, but more importantly filling a void at carriers that weren't offering the IPhone. Entrench an installed base and it could have been like MS's near monopoly in PC.

The one thing MS can leverage is that installed PC base by incorporating great Windows/Office compatibility. That's where you have your doubts on execution. Plus, they can't ignore all the smartphone users already out there, and so they are going to cannibalize their own competitive advantage to cross-sell to IOS and Android users.

Just as an example...Google and Dropbox offer free storage services in the cloud. SkyDrive (MS) offers 25 or 50gigs and should be a no-brainer, but they manage to make it suck in spite of the generous storage.