I find it real hard to believe however that Verizon would expect us to pay full price for an upgraded phone. I won't do it. Who's got that kind of money? Well, I'm sure some of you do. Heck some of you will sell your children for a new phone. And I'm not saying that's bad, I don't have any so I can't sell mine.
My understanding is the ETF is $350, reduced $10 per month of service. My NE2 is like Sep, but it doesn't look to me like the 2-yr contracts offer enough incentive to lock-in for 2 years. So I may very well be paying the ETF when I see a phone I really like, and then signing a 1-yr contract. After, say, 18 months that will be @ $300 plus $170 for the ETF.
I also have a gut feeling that LTE upgrades are going to disappoint VZW (not to mention, most 2-yr contract Droids aren't up until at least July for upgrades) and so they are going to offer people special promotions. And for everyone like me sitting here saying "well, gee, I want to get off 2-yr contracts because there's no reason not to" it's going to be very tough because VZW has a few hundred bucks, at least, to play with.
Realistically, if I get at least 18 months out of my D1 there's no reason I can't get at least that much out of my next phone (provided it has everything I'm looking for). Although I've been wanting more power since about August. But faced with $470 or so to upgrade vs. maybe a VZW promotion for $300 I may have to sign another 2-yr and then cross the next upgrade bridge when I come to it.