I have no real info but I have a feeling we will start seeing updates trickling out as soon as Monday.
If you recall, the last Update was rumored for Dec 11th and the updates started trickling out 5 days before the 11th so everyone would have it by the 11th.
Given that logic, if the rummored date is the 22nd, plus some others stated "senior techs" at Verizon said they could start on or before the 17th (5 days before the 22nd), then it would make perfect sense that we could see the updates roll out all thru this coming week.
That's my theory and I am sticking too it... at least until Monday afternoon
BUT of course, we won't know for sure until someone reports actually getting an update notice..... Fingers crossed!!
Verizon and Google have a specific way of doing updates. This is how it works:
They push the update to a small percentage to "test" it and check that it works well with people's phones. Google has a way to monitor the progress remotely and how well the update works, and they work with VZW customer service on complaints from users about the update to make sure everything is working as intended.
After this small batch of people get the update, there's a 48 hour window where no one gets any update at all, so that Verizon and Google have time to check for problems as detailed in the above paragraph.
If all is going well, then updates are pushed to mass amounts of people after the 48 hour period of no updates, continuing until everyone has upgraded.
Battery level needs to be 40% or higher when the phone checks for the update, and usage of network resources must be low. So, if you really want an update and you know the day(s) when it's coming, I suggest using your phone for browsing, etc. as little as possible.
Each phone only checks for the update two (2) times per day (not sure if it's at like 12:01pm and 12:01am or some other time - that part I don't know, just that it only checks twice for the update).
Updates are done by Google, and Verizon works with them to work out any problems. This makes sense since Google authors the software in partnership with Verizon Wireless.
The process of updating is the same for both Droid phones, the Eris and the Motorola Droid. The Eris just had a small update and 15k-25k people are getting a 2.0.1 update to fix Facebook right now, and I would imagine this is how updates will be handles henceforth.
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So the theory of 5 days before the 22nd might be true, since that is how it happened in December. 5 days before the 11th, a small amount (maybe 5%) will get the 2.1 update, and then a 48 hour window where no one gets any update. Then over day 4, 5, and 6 if needed, everyone else will get their update.
The 22nd is a rumor, of course, and not set in stone, but most people seem to think it's the most solid date of any out there. I tend to agree, though I certainly err on the side of caution and don't let myself get my hopes up too much. I assume we will get 2.1 at the latest by the end of February, though I hope for it much sooner