I say the Vigor is out because we've heard very little about it. Don't get me wrong, the rumored specs are great and sounds amazing, but something about this particular doesn't sit right with me. Just have a bad feeling about it. Plus, I 99.99% guarantee it will be a Sense phone and more than likely will ship with gingerbread as well, assuming it launches in November. Sense is also good, but I prefer vanilla. Much like the Razr, there's a chance this device won't see ICS for several months.
The last thing I'd like to point out is Google moving away from capacitive buttons in ICS. Vigor and Razr have them, the Nexus does not. How will phones with capacitive buttons handle ICS down the road? Seems redundant to buy a device that has them when you know the OS is moving in a different direction. The Nexus is tailored to ICS.