I don't think anybody, even the Verizon executive, specifically said that the Thunderbolt is coming out mid-year. Like the Xoom, they can release with 4g shut off. Unlike the Xoom, they can ship with the ability in place but the PRLs programmed so that they block the phones from making 4g handshakes to the towers.
The comments from Verizon are that the 4g network needs work until late Q2. I think I can reasonably conclude that HTC has already done the launch production run and shipped. So now HTC has cash trapped in warehouses and possibly retail store back rooms. HTC is obviously going to press VzW to solve that problem even if the network isn't ready. VzW will push back over the rumored firmware update for the battery and the testing time required. We all have seen past Verizon launches that show they like to test, test, test, and re-test.
Since I'm not aware of any VzW launch date communicated, and maybe I missed something in all the flurry going on around here, the only people to blame for past predictions failing to occur are Best Buy and the media we reference for rumor on release.
Your post makes a lot of sense, but again the counter argument is that just because VZW never officially announced it, doesn't mean there weren't unexpected internal delays with this phone. I am 99.9% sure that Best Buy didn't pull 2/14 out of thin air, or that HTC wouldn't start running ads for a phone they new wouldn't be out for another month.
I agree with your other comments though, that what the CTO said about end of Q2 wasn't proving that the TB won't be out until then. While it's not safe to say anything with this phone, and no vzw won't release it to a broken network, but there's no way it's another 3 months for this thing.