Android: The new king of the mobile castle

[Darkseider]

This ENTIRE thread is speculation haha....how can you possibly say it's not worth speculating. you telling me that android is going to take the lead in market share is speculation (trying to pass it off as fact like you and kodiak are doing doesn't make it so)...

the answer to my question which neither one of you will answer (either because you can't comprehend it (kodiak) or think it's speculation (LOL)) is yes, most android users will eventually be upgrading, and you're not going to see 40M new sales every year for the rest of eternity. it was a simple question and both of you successfully skirted the question by telling me i was backpedaling. if you think that android is going to continue to get new users forever then again, you guys are fanboys that have no common sense. if you don't think that, then every argument you talk about upgrades to the iPhone is irrelevant. Simple as that.

Sure there will be upgrades but the other point is that most NEW smart phone customers, read as those whom never owned a smart phone before, are purchasing Android handsets. So yes there will be upgrades but there will also be tons of new sales as the smartphone market continues to grow.

fair enough. is it also fair to say that eventually, the number of upgraders will far outnumber the number of new users? because logic would tell you that growth will occur exponentially right? and eventually that growth will have to plateau? I mean you're not going to get 40M new sales one year, then 80M the next, then 160M the year after and 320M after that, right? At some point the upgraders will outnumber the new sales right? So how is that a relevant argument?

Yes folks upgrading will outnumber those buying new Android handsets. As it stands now that does not hold true and probably won't for at least another 12 - 18 months. It also stands to reason that once Android gets a foothold in the Asian market you will see more explosive growth again. China is just a budding market with TONS of Android handsets coming out. India which used to be Nokia's big market is quickly becoming a new front line for cheap commodity Android handsets as well. Don't be surprised to see the Android numbers explode once these markets fully accept Android.

If you are going to make the iPhone argument in these markets, not happening. People in these countries are very price conscious and cannot afford an iPhone. Whereas an Android handset w/ a 3.2" screen running 2.1 or even 2.2 on a Qualcomm SoC, think Aria, would sell like hot cakes.

 

[kodiak799]

I have to ask again, do you honestly think Android/Google/Verizon is going to build a recurring revenue stream from a growing base of new users forever? I pray that you don't, because your irrelevance will reach a new high if you do. Every company has loyal users, and Google is going to have loyal users. Why are these stats even being mentioned? A sale is a sale. Doesn't matter if it's an upgrade or not. Find me one company that doesn't have loyal users and I'll shut up. Your irrelevant stats mean nothing.

your arguments (every single one) are baseless and nonsensical. to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd. to say that their sales are based purely on "iPhone!" and not on anything else is dumb. To somehow diminish upgrades as not really "sales" is foolish. To suggest that Android won't be in the same boat in a couple of years makes no sense. And if you are saying that they will be in the same boat, then you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.

I can't wait for 2010 when Google announces that 97% of its sales are new users...stand up comedy man...do it...you'll make millions.

If you knew what you were arguing or could articulate your position logically, then you might understand the point being made.

Nowhere has it been said you can grow the user base forever (technically, there's truth to that, because people die and future buyers are born every year). And for like the 20th time, I've never said Apple doesn't have a good product. I have said, however, that not everyone, not even most, think everything Apple is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

You're response to the growing Android market share was Apple sales, and it was pointed out that Apples sales are mostly upgrades. And that's where you started in with the irrelevant argument about the number of devices demonstrating a complete lack of understanding for Apple's business model and positioning.

 

[czerdrill]

Sure there will be upgrades but the other point is that most NEW smart phone customers, read as those whom never owned a smart phone before, are purchasing Android handsets. So yes there will be upgrades but there will also be tons of new sales as the smartphone market continues to grow.

fair enough. is it also fair to say that eventually, the number of upgraders will far outnumber the number of new users? because logic would tell you that growth will occur exponentially right? and eventually that growth will have to plateau? I mean you're not going to get 40M new sales one year, then 80M the next, then 160M the year after and 320M after that, right? At some point the upgraders will outnumber the new sales right? So how is that a relevant argument?

Yes folks upgrading will outnumber those buying new Android handsets. As it stands now that does not hold true and probably won't for at least another 12 - 18 months. It also stands to reason that once Android gets a foothold in the Asian market you will see more explosive growth again. China is just a budding market with TONS of Android handsets coming out. India which used to be Nokia's big market is quickly becoming a new front line for cheap commodity Android handsets as well. Don't be surprised to see the Android numbers explode once these markets fully accept Android.

If you are going to make the iPhone argument in these markets, not happening. People in these countries are very price conscious and cannot afford an iPhone. Whereas an Android handset w/ a 3.2" screen running 2.1 or even 2.2 on a Qualcomm SoC, think Aria, would sell like hot cakes.

and it doesn't stand like that now because android is the "new" thing. it's like me releasing the CzerdrillPhone, selling 20 of them, and saying 100% of my purchases were new users!! It's irrelevant. It's a new product that people are getting to know about and eventually it'll plateau and most sales will be upgrades. The growth you see for android in the US is because of just that. a new thing, on a good network, that is an alternative to the iphone (yes, the iDon't commercials prove that), that has 40 different varieties. eventually it'll peak and current users will be upgrading more then new ones buying.

as for worldwide market, i cant disagree with that. if you count every country on the planet then yes, android will absolutely outsell. but here is where this thread comes full circle. about 40 pages ago haha i said a simple statement: that android would not continue to gain ground the way it has if the iphone comes to verizon. i still stick by that. is android going to fail? nope. i never said that and i never will. is android going to continue this exponential growth if there's a verizon iphone and eventually a 4G iphone? no. simply not going to happen. the overall metrics will remain the same, and if android does take the lead in the US, it will be helped by the fact that android is available on 40+ devices and all US networks practically, and iphone (if it comes to verizon) will be one device on only 2 networks. but its not going to be a steamroll. apple is not going to bow out and be outsold by the hundreds of millions. i imagine it'll be the same thing we see now as it is worldwide. android will outsell iphone by a couple of million units, and when a 4g iphone comes out, apple will take the lead again. yes its just an antenna upgrade, and yes 80% will be upgrades, but a sale is a sale.

 

[Darkseider]

fair enough. is it also fair to say that eventually, the number of upgraders will far outnumber the number of new users? because logic would tell you that growth will occur exponentially right? and eventually that growth will have to plateau? I mean you're not going to get 40M new sales one year, then 80M the next, then 160M the year after and 320M after that, right? At some point the upgraders will outnumber the new sales right? So how is that a relevant argument?

Yes folks upgrading will outnumber those buying new Android handsets. As it stands now that does not hold true and probably won't for at least another 12 - 18 months. It also stands to reason that once Android gets a foothold in the Asian market you will see more explosive growth again. China is just a budding market with TONS of Android handsets coming out. India which used to be Nokia's big market is quickly becoming a new front line for cheap commodity Android handsets as well. Don't be surprised to see the Android numbers explode once these markets fully accept Android.

If you are going to make the iPhone argument in these markets, not happening. People in these countries are very price conscious and cannot afford an iPhone. Whereas an Android handset w/ a 3.2" screen running 2.1 or even 2.2 on a Qualcomm SoC, think Aria, would sell like hot cakes.

and it doesn't stand like that now because android is the "new" thing. it's like me releasing the CzerdrillPhone, selling 20 of them, and saying 100% of my purchases were new users!! It's irrelevant. It's a new product that people are getting to know about and eventually it'll plateau and most sales will be upgrades. The growth you see for android in the US is because of just that. a new thing, on a good network, that is an alternative to the iphone (yes, the iDon't commercials prove that), that has 40 different varieties. eventually it'll peak and current users will be upgrading more then new ones buying.

as for worldwide market, i cant disagree with that. if you count every country on the planet then yes, android will absolutely outsell. but here is where this thread comes full circle. about 40 pages ago haha i said a simple statement: that android would not continue to gain ground the way it has if the iphone comes to verizon. i still stick by that. is android going to fail? nope. i never said that and i never will. is android going to continue this exponential growth if there's a verizon iphone and eventually a 4G iphone? no. simply not going to happen. the overall metrics will remain the same, and if android does take the lead in the US, it will be helped by the fact that android is available on 40+ devices and all US networks practically, and iphone (if it comes to verizon) will be one device on only 2 networks. but its not going to be a steamroll. apple is not going to bow out and be outsold by the hundreds of millions. i imagine it'll be the same thing we see now as it is worldwide. android will outsell iphone by a couple of million units, and when a 4g iphone comes out, apple will take the lead again. yes its just an antenna upgrade, and yes 80% will be upgrades, but a sale is a sale.

Yes it will. It will continue to gain ground when it is released on Verizon and will not stop the steam rolling. The Tegra 2 handsets and the Tegra 2 and other Cortex A9 based tablets rolling out Q4 this year and throughout next year as well as Gingerbread and Honeycomb will ensure this. Apple will have nothing to compete with these devices and the features that they offer. Plain and simple.

 

[kodiak799]

the reason they sell is because people think "iphone i have to have that!!!" without knowing anything about the phone, about specs, about comparisons to android...what they do know is people moonwalk in the commercials and that "there's an app for that"

Did you forget this little response or are you in full backpedal mode?

There were three dots after I wrote that, they looked like this "..." i assumed that by placing those dots there you'd comprehend that there were more words to follow...they signal that what I was writing wasn't completed and I had more to add to my thought. I'll wait while you go back and read the rest. Stop taking things out of context and then saying I'm backpedaling. It makes you look even more foolish than you already do.

I didn't misquote you. Perhaps your grammar skills are as poor as your logic skills, but I'm not misleading with what you communicated in that post. And it's not the first time, either. You've made multiple posts that wreak of over fan boy optimism that Iphone is the greatest thing since sliced bread and Android can't compete. It's very obvious Android more than competes, it's TAKING market share.

 

[czerdrill]

I have to ask again, do you honestly think Android/Google/Verizon is going to build a recurring revenue stream from a growing base of new users forever? I pray that you don't, because your irrelevance will reach a new high if you do. Every company has loyal users, and Google is going to have loyal users. Why are these stats even being mentioned? A sale is a sale. Doesn't matter if it's an upgrade or not. Find me one company that doesn't have loyal users and I'll shut up. Your irrelevant stats mean nothing.

your arguments (every single one) are baseless and nonsensical. to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd. to say that their sales are based purely on "iPhone!" and not on anything else is dumb. To somehow diminish upgrades as not really "sales" is foolish. To suggest that Android won't be in the same boat in a couple of years makes no sense. And if you are saying that they will be in the same boat, then you're just arguing for the sake of arguing.

I can't wait for 2010 when Google announces that 97% of its sales are new users...stand up comedy man...do it...you'll make millions.

If you knew what you were arguing or could articulate your position logically, then you might understand the point being made.

Nowhere has it been said you can grow the user base forever (technically, there's truth to that, because people die and future buyers are born every year). And for like the 20th time, I've never said Apple doesn't have a good product. I have said, however, that not everyone, not even most, think everything Apple is the greatest thing since sliced bread.

You're response to the growing Android market share was Apple sales, and it was pointed out that Apples sales are mostly upgrades. And that's where you started in with the irrelevant argument about the number of devices demonstrating a complete lack of understanding for Apple's business model and positioning.

Again...misconstrued. Read slowly, dude. it helps. Here's what you said:

"And for like the 20th time, I've never said Apple doesn't have a good product."

and now here's what I said:

"to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd."

let's break that down shall we?

"to admit that apple has good marketing"...that part of the sentence means I was telling you that you admitted that apple has good marketing.

"but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd"...that part of the sentence means I was telling you that you're saying they have a good product but that's not the reason they're staying loyal. it doesn't say:

"but to deny that they have a good product" OR
"but to deny that iphone sucks" OR
"but to deny that iOS is a horrible OS" OR

see where I'm getting? I didn't say that you said Apple has a bad product. It clearly says (and you QUOTED it) "to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd."

Reading is Fundamental. RIF.

 

[kodiak799]

Don't forget the LTE devices launching @ May. Oh, wait, that's right VZW won't be promoting LTE because they're going to be trying to sell everyone IPhones you know, because they'll make so much more money selling an IPhone instead of an Android phone.

 

[czerdrill]

Did you forget this little response or are you in full backpedal mode?

There were three dots after I wrote that, they looked like this "..." i assumed that by placing those dots there you'd comprehend that there were more words to follow...they signal that what I was writing wasn't completed and I had more to add to my thought. I'll wait while you go back and read the rest. Stop taking things out of context and then saying I'm backpedaling. It makes you look even more foolish than you already do.

I didn't misquote you. Perhaps your grammar skills are as poor as your logic skills, but I'm not misleading with what you communicated in that post. And it's not the first time, either. You've made multiple posts that wreak of over fan boy optimism that Iphone is the greatest thing since sliced bread and Android can't compete. It's very obvious Android more than competes, it's TAKING market share.

I mean, I don't know what to tell you. The complete lack of comprehension is amazing. I'm surprised you're able to hold a conversation this long to be honest. You've repeatedly misquoted me, misconstrued what I said, and not comprehended what you're reading. Calling me a fanboy and telling me i'm backpedaling is about as empty a response and you saying people choose iPhone only because it's a brand and the fact that it's a good product has nothing to do with that.

 

[czerdrill]

Don't forget the LTE devices launching @ May. Oh, wait, that's right VZW won't be promoting LTE because they're going to be trying to sell everyone IPhones you know, because they'll make so much more money selling an IPhone instead of an Android phone.

You're on a roll. Reading is fundamental dude. Trust me, we're laughing at you, not with you.

 

[czerdrill]

Yes folks upgrading will outnumber those buying new Android handsets. As it stands now that does not hold true and probably won't for at least another 12 - 18 months. It also stands to reason that once Android gets a foothold in the Asian market you will see more explosive growth again. China is just a budding market with TONS of Android handsets coming out. India which used to be Nokia's big market is quickly becoming a new front line for cheap commodity Android handsets as well. Don't be surprised to see the Android numbers explode once these markets fully accept Android.

If you are going to make the iPhone argument in these markets, not happening. People in these countries are very price conscious and cannot afford an iPhone. Whereas an Android handset w/ a 3.2" screen running 2.1 or even 2.2 on a Qualcomm SoC, think Aria, would sell like hot cakes.

and it doesn't stand like that now because android is the "new" thing. it's like me releasing the CzerdrillPhone, selling 20 of them, and saying 100% of my purchases were new users!! It's irrelevant. It's a new product that people are getting to know about and eventually it'll plateau and most sales will be upgrades. The growth you see for android in the US is because of just that. a new thing, on a good network, that is an alternative to the iphone (yes, the iDon't commercials prove that), that has 40 different varieties. eventually it'll peak and current users will be upgrading more then new ones buying.

as for worldwide market, i cant disagree with that. if you count every country on the planet then yes, android will absolutely outsell. but here is where this thread comes full circle. about 40 pages ago haha i said a simple statement: that android would not continue to gain ground the way it has if the iphone comes to verizon. i still stick by that. is android going to fail? nope. i never said that and i never will. is android going to continue this exponential growth if there's a verizon iphone and eventually a 4G iphone? no. simply not going to happen. the overall metrics will remain the same, and if android does take the lead in the US, it will be helped by the fact that android is available on 40+ devices and all US networks practically, and iphone (if it comes to verizon) will be one device on only 2 networks. but its not going to be a steamroll. apple is not going to bow out and be outsold by the hundreds of millions. i imagine it'll be the same thing we see now as it is worldwide. android will outsell iphone by a couple of million units, and when a 4g iphone comes out, apple will take the lead again. yes its just an antenna upgrade, and yes 80% will be upgrades, but a sale is a sale.

Yes it will. It will continue to gain ground when it is released on Verizon and will not stop the steam rolling. The Tegra 2 handsets and the Tegra 2 and other Cortex A9 based tablets rolling out Q4 this year and throughout next year as well as Gingerbread and Honeycomb will ensure this. Apple will have nothing to compete with these devices and the features that they offer. Plain and simple.

We'll see. This is all speculation haha

 

[kodiak799]

see where I'm getting? I didn't say that you said Apple has a bad product. It clearly says (and you QUOTED it) "to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd."

Reading is Fundamental. RIF.

Again, how is that relevant to anything being said? Where have I ever denied Apple has a good product? You quote me and STILL harp on something I've never said or intimated with any of my posts. I have no idea what your point was with that post and, I suspect, neither do you.

And, by the way, the product itself typically has little to do with loyalty. Bad products lose customers, but marketing does more to create loyalty than having a superior product. Loyalty necessitates having a good product, it does not require you have the best product nor mean your product is the best, merely that customers are satisfied. And, certainly, you can't ignore that Apple's marketing plays a role in creating satisfied customers - Jobs is infamous for downplaying what IOS doesn't do and telling people they don't need something, or acting like something it's behind the curve on is all good because Apple does it better. It matters not whether it's true, only that its customer base believes it.

Also, you're a little ignorant of the marketing world. The IPhone is a good product, but good marketing does a lot to create long-lasting loyalty. It's not sustainable without a good product, but loyal customers are forgiving and patient. See Big 3 and the "buy American" campaign or, even better, take a look at major beer sales. Bud, Miller, Coors - all terrible (and cheap) beers. Also market leaders in sales.

 

[czerdrill]

see where I'm getting? I didn't say that you said Apple has a bad product. It clearly says (and you QUOTED it) "to admit that apple has good marketing but deny that their good product is the reason people stay loyal to them is odd."

Reading is Fundamental. RIF.

Again, how is that relevant to anything being said? Where have I ever denied Apple has a good product? You quote me and STILL harp on something I've never said or intimated with any of my posts. I have no idea what your point was with that post and, I suspect, neither do you.

And, by the way, the product itself typically has little to do with loyalty. Bad products lose customers, but marketing does more to create loyalty than having a superior product. Loyalty necessitates having a good product, it does not require you have the best product nor mean your product is the best, merely that customers are satisfied. And, certainly, you can't ignore that Apple's marketing plays a role in creating satisfied customers - Jobs is infamous for downplaying what IOS doesn't do and telling people they don't need something, or acting like something it's behind the curve on is all good because Apple does it better. It matters not whether it's true, only that its customer base believes it.

Also, you're a little ignorant of the marketing world. The IPhone is a good product, but good marketing does a lot to create long-lasting loyalty. It's not sustainable without a good product, but loyal customers are forgiving and patient. See Big 3 and the "buy American" campaign or, even better, take a look at major beer sales. Bud, Miller, Coors - all terrible (and cheap) beers. Also market leaders in sales.

OMG!! hahaha...are you serious?? READ WHAT I WROTE!! I DID NOT SAY THAT YOU SAID THEY HAVE A BAD PRODUCT!!!! hahaha...this is insane how you continue to not comprehend what you're reading.

I DID NOT SAY THAT YOU SAID APPLE HAS A BAD PRODUCT!!!!

I also did NOT deny marketing's effect on loyalty!!!!! hahaha....geez you can drive a sane man mad. It's ridiculous how you could possibly NOT understand what you're reading like this hahahh....i'm dying of laughter here.

 

[czerdrill]

PLEASE, I beg of you, read what I wrote slowly hahahaa....this is like a joke.

 

[kodiak799]

Don't forget the LTE devices launching @ May. Oh, wait, that's right VZW won't be promoting LTE because they're going to be trying to sell everyone IPhones you know, because they'll make so much more money selling an IPhone instead of an Android phone.

You're on a roll. Reading is fundamental dude. Trust me, we're laughing at you, not with you.[/quote]

By "we" do you mean "you". You've not been misquoted or misconstrued. Several people have called you on logical inconsistencies and fan boy statements multiple times, and you resort to backpedaling and attacking the poster.

You can't make logical connections with your posts. You go off on this huge tangent about if IPhone was on multiple devices, and then when that gets shot down you you try to redirect the argument a new direction where you try to set things up in your favor by attributing things to me I've not said (even after being told, multiple times, I'm not saying that). But then you confuse your arguments and get called on it, so you spin and redirect again. Wash, rinse and repeat.

 

[kodiak799]

PLEASE, I beg of you, read what I wrote slowly hahahaa....this is like a joke.

I read what you wrote, even quoted you to remind you of it. I suggest you go back and read some of your posts, because you seem to keep forgetting what you've said and the arguments you're making. You only reinforce your own lack of reading comprehension by continuing to attribute arguments to me when you've been told repeatedly that has not been said. Even if you find posts where I said that, it's been clarified/corrected multiple times. So stop accusing others for lacking reading comprehension, it's hypocritical at best.