A couple of points.
First, P3 has never let us down in the past. His leaks are just that, leaks (hey CK you gave up too easy). But, if you understand the way the process works, these files are sent to folks who test and report. If they pass muster with all of the players, then they get sent OTA. If they fail, then they get updated at the source, assigned a new build number and then resent for testing. In this process, CZ and P3 have a source who leaks these files to them. Perhaps not what will OTA, but a release candidiate none the less. This is the situation with the first frg22 that many of us are running. If you look at P3's presence on the other board, it becomes pretty evident that the only reason that he would alter the file and report it as something it is not would be for fame or money. If he were to do this, it would be the last "android" thing that he ever did, publicly, as the tar and feathering would be pretty severe. I have a real hard time believing this theory.
Now, will this be the frg22d that verizon OTA's? Could be, and I would say that if Verizon says the OTA will be a file labeled frg22d, then likley this is it.
Now, back to Flash. If you remember how many of these OTA type files work with the market, then you will understand that Moto/VZW has to make the source available to the development world, prior to the OTA. The way this works in theory is that once the source is released to the app world, then the app developers are responsible to get their programs up to speed, so that they will be available for us. In theory before we get the OTA.
Here is where I am a little fuzzy. The N1 see's flash in the market. But, the N1's files are different than ours. I could easily understand that the folks at Adobe (and all of the other apps) will have to do some "stuff" on their end for market to link our phones with their apps. Perhaps it's an API build number, or some other thing that will read the frg22d footprint correctly.
It is very likley that this file is just like all the earlier leaked "source" files in that when you get the leak before you are intended to have the leak, and perhaps before the source has been dropped to development, you will have some things not work (market speaking), like Flash, or Homerun Battle, etc. Folks, think back a few months, and perhaps your perspective might be changed.
So, does anyone know whether the source code has been dropped to the development world? In the past, this was the cue that the OTA was coming, and what you might call a clue as to what we have here.
Craig