A Plan For A Brighter Android Future

[czerdrill]

there are 100,000+ members on these boards so 15,000 lurkers is not something thats unheard of. Those lurkers could very well be members who haven't logged in. Now let's put it into perspective of what p3 is saying. at his lowest range, he says 30%, which in the US, i believe would equal 9 million android users (i'm not sure about the numbers, feel free to correct me). There's quite a difference between 15,000 and 9 million. there simply is not that many people out there who are rooting that are not part of some site. it makes no sense to suggest that there is.

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here. i myself am part of at least 3, and have probably registered for more then that...there might a million total, but definitely not a million unique. i would think that unique members would probably be around 300,000 to 500,000. and the other thing you have to remember and the mods here will attest to it, is not everyone on every forum is rooting. in fact, the majority of members are not rooted. that's why whenever there is an OTA you see members coming out of the woodwork asking questions about it.

 

[czerdrill]

@czerdrill
I want you to understand that I don't think that your criticisms are farfetched by any means. What I am saying is that they are the clear obstacles that I would have to overcome in order for this to have any chance whatsoever. I would have to prove in a very concrete and convincing manner that my assumptions that this could be a worthwhile and profitable endevor are in fact accurate. If I cannot do that, then I can't. But going around in circles about it, when both you and I are basing everything on conjectures, is not going to get us anywhere. I recognize your criticisms, they are valid. The quest I am on is to determine the marketability of open source android as a secondary option and to do so in a, matter that protects the interests of both the carriers and the end users. If that cannot be done in this regard, then your criticisms will have effectively outweighed my perceived benefits, and I will report my finding as such, no sugar coating failure when the stats reveal it. Is that fair?

{{ WugFresh }}

absolutely, and like i said i took it to PM for the very reason that I didn't want to muddle your thread with my negativity. you bought it back here. good luck with your quest dancedroid

 

[nerdslogic]

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here.

This is totally true....I am on here, XDA, Android Central, and a few others....I think I total 5 or 6 forums I visit.

 

[bplewis24]

Okay, so let's double the estimated figures and assume 2 million registered & lurking root users via Android forums (which I believe is very generous). A quick Google search gives me 69 million* Android phones being sold globally in 2010 alone. 2 million wouldn't even be 3%.

*Does anybody have any other figures?

Edit: http://www.gadgetoxic.com/2011/04/06/android-the-victor-as-smartphone-sales-soar/

Brandon

 

[OneTenderRebel]

there are 100,000+ members on these boards so 15,000 lurkers is not something thats unheard of. Those lurkers could very well be members who haven't logged in. Now let's put it into perspective of what p3 is saying. at his lowest range, he says 30%, which in the US, i believe would equal 9 million android users (i'm not sure about the numbers, feel free to correct me). There's quite a difference between 15,000 and 9 million. there simply is not that many people out there who are rooting that are not part of some site. it makes no sense to suggest that there is.

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

I actually have done some research on this and the total number of registered members across the forums I could find comes in at about 300000 to 350000. It is naive, IMO, to believe all these members are rooted. You see on this forum that clearly is not the case. I believe P3 when he says he personally has rooted 100 phones but he is very much in the minority there. The vast majority of us who root only root our own device. I am not claiming P3 is a liar, his sources are just simply wrong this time. Paperwork and all, its just not logically sound that there are multi millions of people rooting.

Also to touch on the forums again, many people join multiple forums so there's no telling how many of those members are canceling eachother out of the total number.

With that being said, if someone wants to devote their time and efforts to something like this, who am I to step in the way? Regardless of my personal opinion I wish you guys the best of luck, I truly mean that.

sent from the great depths of my phones internet (thanks Al Gore)

 

[13th angel]

there are 100,000+ members on these boards so 15,000 lurkers is not something thats unheard of. Those lurkers could very well be members who haven't logged in. Now let's put it into perspective of what p3 is saying. at his lowest range, he says 30%, which in the US, i believe would equal 9 million android users (i'm not sure about the numbers, feel free to correct me). There's quite a difference between 15,000 and 9 million. there simply is not that many people out there who are rooting that are not part of some site. it makes no sense to suggest that there is.

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here. i myself am part of at least 3, and have probably registered for more then that...there might a million total, but definitely not a million unique. i would think that unique members would probably be around 300,000 to 500,000. and the other thing you have to remember and the mods here will attest to it, is not everyone on every forum is rooting. in fact, the majority of members are not rooted. that's why whenever there is an OTA you see members coming out of the woodwork asking questions about it.

I specifically said eliminate the duplicates so no, I'm not assuming a unique userbase. I also accept that not everyone is rooted, I never said they were. However, in the past week alone I walked 3 people through rooting/roming personally along with a few I linked to other threads. That's just me

Sent from my Liberated D2G

 

[czerdrill]

Okay, so let's double your figure and assume 2 million registered & lurking root users via Android forums. A quick Google search gives me 69 million* Android phones being sold globally in 2010 alone. 2 million wouldn't even be 3%.

*Does anybody have any other figures?

Brandon

Nope, the nails have been hit. There is no way it's going anywhere near 30%, and I think that's pretty obvious.

 

[Snow02]

there are 100,000+ members on these boards so 15,000 lurkers is not something thats unheard of. Those lurkers could very well be members who haven't logged in. Now let's put it into perspective of what p3 is saying. at his lowest range, he says 30%, which in the US, i believe would equal 9 million android users (i'm not sure about the numbers, feel free to correct me). There's quite a difference between 15,000 and 9 million. there simply is not that many people out there who are rooting that are not part of some site. it makes no sense to suggest that there is.

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here. i myself am part of at least 3, and have probably registered for more then that...there might a million total, but definitely not a million unique. i would think that unique members would probably be around 300,000 to 500,000. and the other thing you have to remember and the mods here will attest to it, is not everyone on every forum is rooting. in fact, the majority of members are not rooted. that's why whenever there is an OTA you see members coming out of the woodwork asking questions about it.

Right. So you're the only one allowed to make assumptions. Got it.

But I agree there is definitely some overlap in user bases. That should be obvious.

I still believe there are FAR more unregistered users than registered. By a long shot. This is based mostly on my personal experience. I lurked for a couple of years before I started posting in forums. I doubt I'm alone.

 

[czerdrill]

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here. i myself am part of at least 3, and have probably registered for more then that...there might a million total, but definitely not a million unique. i would think that unique members would probably be around 300,000 to 500,000. and the other thing you have to remember and the mods here will attest to it, is not everyone on every forum is rooting. in fact, the majority of members are not rooted. that's why whenever there is an OTA you see members coming out of the woodwork asking questions about it.

Right. So you're the only one allowed to make assumptions. Got it.

But I agree there is definitely some overlap in user bases. That should be obvious.

I still believe there are FAR more unregistered users than registered. By a long shot. This is based mostly on my personal experience. I lurked for a couple of years before I started posting in forums. I doubt I'm alone.

Here we go again...my assumptions are made based on history and logic. The assumptions of others are made on "they'll do this for us, just cause!" with nothing whatsoever to back it up.

If you're going to argue that there are multi-millions of unregistered users who are all rooted...I don't know what to say to you. The only thing I can do is laugh to myself, I guess.

 

[czerdrill]

I just want to point one thing out..... Your looking at just one forum. There are many, many forums including sister sites that people register on but dont register here etc. In my opinion there could easily be that many root users. Im sure if we totaled all of the boards up and eliminated the duplicates we would have an easy million registered across them. Then you count the lurkers which on some sites, such as the 15k here, there are alot of. Yes, some could be people that havent logged in but im willing to bet than theres only a few of those that just havent logged in yet.

ah but your assuming that every site has a unique userbase. that's not the case. i can go to multiple android forums and see the same usernames there that i see here. i myself am part of at least 3, and have probably registered for more then that...there might a million total, but definitely not a million unique. i would think that unique members would probably be around 300,000 to 500,000. and the other thing you have to remember and the mods here will attest to it, is not everyone on every forum is rooting. in fact, the majority of members are not rooted. that's why whenever there is an OTA you see members coming out of the woodwork asking questions about it.

I specifically said eliminate the duplicates so no, I'm not assuming a unique userbase. I also accept that not everyone is rooted, I never said they were. However, in the past week alone I walked 3 people through rooting/roming personally along with a few I linked to other threads. That's just me

Sent from my Liberated D2G

Sorry missed that part. Well if you're eliminating the duplicates there'd be far less. You're saying eliminate the duplicates and there'd still be scores of millions of people who are unregistered and rooted? I just don't get it.

 

[bplewis24]

This is based mostly on my personal experience. I lurked for a couple of years before I started posting in forums. I doubt I'm alone.

I would like to ask you a question to illustrate a point: why did you ultimately create your account when you did?

Brandon

 

[Snow02]

I think xda was my first one, in order to download a file.

 

[bplewis24]

Actually, I did the same thing at XDA (download a file). But the first time I created an account here (after lurking for a few months) was to finally root my phone. I think there are probably a lot of people out there who may lurk, but not necessarily take any action until they create an account.

Brandon

 

[czerdrill]

i had mentioned that earlier too, that unless these people are just cooking their own ROMs or not downloading update.zips to root, ROM, theme, where are they getting their files from, since most boards require registration to download files? or are we suggesting that these millions of rebels (smart rebels who need no help) who havent registered on any android forum also have their own intranet where they're exchanging files? LOL

 

[WugFresh]

I would like to take this opportunity to talk about P3Droids stats which now seem to be the center of a lot of controversy.

I started this thread stating that in my eyes P3Droid has lost all credibility, but honestly that comment stemmed from my frustration regarding the manner he went about distributing information, not necessarily the information itself.

Now lets clear some things up right now. My source confirmed entirely that they are able to track those users who tether, did P3Droid not say that long before me? Considering that he did, does that not add the validity of his other statements.

Now lets continue. My source did not say that 1-2% of vzn users were root users, anonymous stated that 1-2% are users that tether illegally. So we are not comparing the right statistical data. I will see if I can find out about confirming the actual root user percentage.

But now lets talk about if it is even possible for there to be that many root users. I am actually leaning towards yes. Why? Hear me out.

Lets put aside the fact that maybe I am more technically inclined then your average bear, because that just helped me get up to speed much faster... but my reasons which initiated my journey towards root are those that would hold true for many users I believe.

So how did it begin?

I got my phone, and it was great.. sweet droid! hooray. What was the first app I downloaded? The newb app. ATK. Why? Because it was the first app on the market that gave me the perception of control over my OS, plus my knowledge stemmed from being a Windows user, where task killing is entirely relevant.

Then what?

I noticed that I killed apps and they reappeared as active processes...?

Hmm... this is strange I thought.. what the heck is going on.

Then I was looking at all this bloatware... and I was like.. why do I have to kill it... why can't I just remove it... what is going on? This is a computer.. why can't I uninstall software which obviously isn't essential to the OS functioning.

So then I did a google search. How to remove CityID?

Then what did I find... a bunch of resources about removing bloatware. Then I searched about task killers not working... what did I find? That they aren't needed on android OS. Then what did I see...?

Root...Root...Root. You need to root to remove bloat. I thought.. hmmn... ok.

What are the risk vs. rewards. Then I found out that I could tether for free. Woot. I am in! At this point... many people would probably do more research to make sure they wouldn't mess up... but I am a little different I suppose. 7 days after purchasing my device, I was typing in adb commands into cmd prompt to root this thing.

Please note. That up until this point. I had not registered to ONE forum. In fact, the notion didn't even cross my mind. The only thing I need is google.

I rooted, removed bloat, tethered, and things were sweet. My phone was faster.

The first time I joined a forum, was because I was trying to get QuickDesk to work with LauncherPro, because at the time, the single tap, and double tap, were conflicting. My first post was actually a SOLUTION procedure, to my own attempt to solve this problem on this forum.

After that... almost all of my posts were aimed to help others. Until I decided to check out what all this ROM and theme nonsense was about.

That is the first time I asked a question.. because there seemed to be a lot of conflicting posts about which ROM was the illest. So I started a thread and started getting feedback. This is when I became really into android and learned all the advanced stuff.

But in my opinion. I think that there are probably ALOT of people, who rooted simply to remove bloat, and tether. And by those assumptions. I think that their could be multi million root users.

My main problem with P3Droids statement, is the nature of these stats.

How EXACTLY are these stats obtained?

I know he said that they were obtained by stats they got when pushing OTA's... but that doesn't seem like it can be accurate...? How could it be? There are so many variables that can affect that.

Also.... What is the time frame of these stats? Is this the root users of ALL TIME? Or is the data regarding the present number of root users? When did the tracking begin? And how is this database being updated?

Without knowing these things... I just can't take that number at face value. If this other information were provided... it would be much easier to judge its validity.

{{ WugFresh }}