I've been in denial, too, about the iPhone on Verizon, but it seems that Apple and Verizon have blinked. Apple is scared of Android, and the only way to stop it is to eat into their user base at Verizon. Not sure why Verizon wants in so badly, but I bet they won't be paying the massive subsidies that AT&T is... Hopefully, all the rumor mongering is just a way to get AT&T to pay more money to Apple to beg them to stay exclusive. Right now, there is no agreement, and the CDMA iPhones that the WSJ keeps reporting on are going to China (Apple is making a deal with the big chinese cell phone guys... that's a lock). Several analysts say that Apple and Verizon are not even close to an agreement, if any, but I bet something will eventually happen. Jobs is way too scared of Google... he'll cave eventually if Verizon plays their cards right.
A Verizon iPhone will be a big blow to Android's dominance, for sure. One can only hope that enough of a foothold can be gained to keep Anroid at a distant second place. The Windows phone is probably going to be a flop. It is a weak product, and while Microsoft will market it strong, it's not even close to comparable to an iPhone or Verizon. They stripped out all the good stuff from Windows Mobile and I bet it still will crash like crazy. Microsoft has had the market to themselves for a decade and have done nothing with it. I doubt that will change too much in the future.
So, we shall see. This will be Android's greatest challenge, yet. I hope we succeed.
Oh, as for switching... no way. I have an iPod that I never use... extremely weak and limited. Apps are too expensive and uncreative. It's not even close to being comparable to Android. I think most who switch over will be disappointed--I expect few who are on Android now to switch. That's what may end up saving the platform.